I have always heard about KK's divine prediction. In his post from 2010, he accurately predicted the development of the real estate market for the past decade.
Due to the lengthy content, I will record some key points here as my notes and share them with everyone.
Many words are sensitive and will be represented by initials.
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The purpose of regulation is not for everyone to have their own house (at least not in terms of ownership), but to prevent financial risks.
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Housing prices are not determined by the average income reported by the statistics bureau, but by the average income of the elites.
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Supply and demand determine commodity prices.
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Another purpose of regulation is to kick out the clowns and rectify the market, forming a Guo Jia team LD market, establishing unified pricing, controlling risks, and maximizing Guo Jia's interests.
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The introduction of public rental housing is a milestone in the process of LD in rent.
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Rent will not decrease, and the income from rent is more operable than property tax.
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Imposing a general tax to adjust the wealth gap ultimately results in misfortune for ordinary people.
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The tranquility at the top of the pyramid comes from the burden carried by the bottom.
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Capital will eventually flow towards assets with scarcity.
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The residential attribute of real estate is part of the real economy, while the ownership attribute is part of the capital market.
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Our country's high inflation and continuous devaluation of currency are determined by the state-owned economic system.
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The size of urban development space is often proportional to the appreciation space of housing prices, although not absolute.
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Inflation is the best remedy for delaying the time of extinction.
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After industrialization, the "three major items" are no longer scarce resources. Cars and real estate have become tools to eliminate liquidity in the hands of ordinary people.
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No matter what kind of investment you make, you must do your homework. Regarding real estate, you need to have a deep understanding of regional economic development, otherwise, do not act rashly.
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Even if you are a farmer, you must understand the government's intentions.
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Short-term fluctuations are normal. Grasping policies can grasp trends, but it is difficult to accurately time the peak and bottom.
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Cities that engage in large-scale construction and active demolition cannot have low housing prices.
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In the future, most houses will be demolished. This is determined by China's system and economic development model. Currently, the focus is on constructing small-sized units from the 70s to the 90s, which will become new urban villages in the future.
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If you have the ability, it is better to strive for a one-step purchase of a house. In the future, it will be very difficult to improve unless there is significant personal development.
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Excessive currency and unfair distribution are the fundamental reasons for the difficulties in the development of the real economy and high housing prices.
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Population decline is the only way for housing prices to decrease.
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China's real estate bubble should be called "disguised taxation" or "real estate LD prices".
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Do not gamble or act out of anger.
Looking back at the 2010 post, it is very forward-thinking. Especially KK's deep understanding of history and politics is admirable.
After reading this post, I feel that many connections have been made. In summary:
Face human nature and historical laws, and do not gamble or act out of anger.
In fact, many problems in human society have answers in history.
This has been enlightening for me recently.
When I was working on data models recently, I wanted to predict future data based on past data.
For example, if the past data showed a linear increase until recently when the economy was not good and the data started to show a downward trend, do you think the future will be an increase or a decrease?
It is difficult to say because we have limited data.
But if I could provide data from many cycles, then the situation would be clear.
So, when you are confused, look back to the previous cycle and if it is not clear, look back further.
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, shared how he navigates through cycles:
"Study history, learn lessons, record them, and build models. This is the template for what is happening."
He said, "I also studied other long cycles, like a movie that happens over and over again, almost like the same story happening repeatedly, with the only changes being the clothes people wear and the technology they use."
Of course, as the poet Yuan Ming said, "The lesson we learn from history is that we never learn from history."
This does not mean that studying history is useless.
Because history is revised and may not even be true. It is also difficult for us to understand the causes and effects of historical events.
So, try to understand the truth of history, but never apply it blindly.
Complete version download:
https://github.com/wenbochang888/house