Survivor Bias: How It Affects Our Decisions, Beliefs, and Even Our Lives#
1. What is Survivor Bias?#
Survivor bias refers to our tendency to focus only on those things that have "survived," while ignoring those that did not "survive." This bias leads to a distorted understanding of reality, resulting in incorrect judgments. For example, you might hear many people say, "Dropping out of college can lead to success," because famous individuals like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs succeeded after dropping out. However, we overlook those who dropped out and did not achieve success; their stories are often lost in the dust of history.
This phenomenon is ubiquitous in our lives. Whether in investing, entrepreneurship, learning, or living, survivor bias quietly influences our judgments. So, how does it affect us? Let’s delve into a real story for a deeper understanding.
Real Story Case#
Old Wang is an ordinary farmer living in a small village in Hunan. In 2010, he heard that Old Li from the neighboring village became wealthy by planting a special medicinal herb, bought a luxury car, and even purchased a house in the city. Old Wang was tempted; he felt this was an opportunity to change his fate. So, he sold several acres of his land, borrowed some money, and began to cultivate this medicinal herb.
However, things did not go as smoothly as Old Wang imagined. In the first year, due to weather conditions, the yield of the herbs significantly decreased; in the second year, market prices plummeted, and Old Wang lost everything. He had to return to the fields to grow rice, and life became even harder than before.
In fact, successful people like Old Li are just a minority, while failures like Old Wang are numerous. Yet, we often only see Old Li's success and ignore Old Wang's failure. This is a typical manifestation of survivor bias.
2. How Does It Affect Our Lives?#
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Entrepreneurship and Investment
Many people blindly follow trends after seeing success stories in a particular industry or project, believing they can replicate that success. However, they overlook the lessons from those who failed. For instance, many see a bubble tea shop thriving and think opening one will surely be profitable, not realizing how many bubble tea shops close shortly after opening. -
Learning and Education
We often hear "top students" share their study methods but rarely hear from "struggling students." This leads us to mistakenly believe that following the top students' methods will guarantee good results. However, everyone's situation is different, and what works for others may not work for oneself. -
Health and Lifestyle
Some people see a centenarian smoking and drinking every day and believe these habits are harmless. However, they overlook those who have died young due to smoking and drinking.
Have you ever been misled by survivor bias?
3. How to Avoid Survivor Bias?#
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Collect Comprehensive Information
When making decisions, do not focus only on success stories; also understand the reasons for failure. For example, if you want to start a business, you should study not only successful entrepreneurs but also analyze the mistakes made by those who failed. -
Maintain Rational Thinking
Do not be deceived by superficial success; learn to use data and analysis to support your judgments. For instance, if you see a particular investment project with high returns, do not rush to invest; first, understand its risks and failure rates. -
View Problems from Multiple Angles
Try to look at problems from different perspectives to avoid falling into a single thought pattern. For example, if you hear that a certain study method is effective, do not blindly copy it; first, consider whether it suits your actual situation.
The truth is often hidden in the stories of "failures."